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0000000000Who doesn't love efficiency, I do. Efficiency means more for less. More miles per gallon, more light per watt, more words per minute, more for less is the next best thing to something for nothing. Algorithms, big data, the cloud are giving us more for less. Are we heading toward a friction-free utopia or toward a nightmare of surveillance?
谁不爱效率？我爱。效率意味着用较少得到较多。每加仑的油跑更多哩程， 每瓦特电力产生更多光线， 每分钟说更多话。唯一胜过“用较少得到较多”的， 就是“用无得到某事物”。演算法、大数据、云端， 都让我们能用较少得到较多。我们正在朝向 零阻力的乌托邦迈进？还是朝向监控的恶梦迈进？
I don't know. My interest is in the present. And, I'd like to show you how the past can help us understand the present. There's nothing that summarizes both the promise and the danger of efficiency like the humble potato. The potato originated in the Andes and it spread to Europe from the Ancient Incas. The potato is a masterpiece of balanced nutrition. And it had some very powerful friends. King Frederick the Great of Prussia was the first enthusiast. He believed that the potato could help increase the population of healthy Prussians. And the more healthy Prussians, the more healthy Prussian soldiers. And some of those healthy Prussian soldiers captured a French military pharmacist named Parmentier. Parmentier, at first, was appalled by the morning, noon, and night diet, fed to POWs, of potatoes, but he came to enjoy it. He thought they were making him a healthier person. And so, when he was released, he took it on himself to spread the potato to France. And he had some powerful friends. Benjamin Franklin advised him to hold a banquet, at which every dish included potatoes. And Franklin was a guest of honor. Even the King and Queen of France were persuaded to wear potatoes, potato flowers, pardon me. The King wore a potato flower in his lapel, and the Queen wore a potato flower in her hair. That was a truly great public relations idea.
我不知道。我感兴趣的是当前。我想要跟各位说明， 过去如何协助我们了解现在。若要把效率的前景 和危险做一个总整，最好的方式 就是用马铃薯来说明。马铃薯源自安地斯山脉， 透过古印加帝国传播到欧洲去。马铃薯是均衡营养的杰作。且它有些非常有影响力的朋友。普鲁士国王腓特烈二世 是第一位热衷马铃薯的人。他相信马铃薯可以协助 增加健康普鲁士人的数量。普鲁士人越健康， 普鲁士士兵就越健康。而一些健康的普鲁士士兵 捕捉到了一位法国军方的 药师，叫做帕门提尔。一开始，帕门提尔吓坏了， 因为战俘早上、中午、晚上 吃的都是马铃薯， 但他渐渐开始喜欢上了。他认为马铃薯让他变得更健康。所以，当他被释放时， 他自己揽起责任， 要把马铃薯传到法国。他有一些很有影响力的朋友。班杰明·富兰克林 建议他办一场盛宴， 每一道菜都要用到马铃薯。而富兰克林是盛宴的贵宾。就连法国的国王和皇后 都被说服穿戴马铃薯， 抱歉，我是指马铃薯花。（笑声） 国王在他的翻领上戴马铃薯花， 皇后则在头发上戴马铃薯花。这个公关的点子真的很棒。
But, there was a catch. The potato was too efficient for Europe's good. In Ireland, it seemed a miracle. Potatoes flourished, the population grew. But there was a hidden risk. Ireland's potatoes were genetically identical. They were a very efficient breed, called the Lumper. And, the problem with the Lumper was that a blight, from South America, that affected one potato would affect them all. Britain's exploitation and callousness played a roll but, it was because of this monoculture that a million people died and another two million were forced to emigrate. A plant that was supposed to end famine created one of the most tragic ones.
但有个问题。对欧洲而言，马铃薯的效率太好了。在爱尔兰，它就像是个奇迹。马铃薯长得茂盛，人口也跟着成长。但背后藏有一个风险。爱尔兰马铃薯的基因相同。这些马铃薯属于非常有效率的 品种：码头工人马铃薯。码头工人马铃薯的问题是， 来自南美的枯萎病 只要影响了一个马铃薯， 就会影响到全部马铃薯。英国的开采利用 和冷酷无情也有影响， 但正是因为这种单一栽培， 导致一百万人死亡， 还有两百万人被迫移居。这种植物本来应该要终结饥荒， 却造成了最悲剧性的饥荒之一。
The problems of efficiency today are less drastic but more chronic. They can also prolong the evils that they were intended to solve. Take the electronic medical record. It seemed to be the answer to the problem of doctors handwriting and it had the benefit of providing much better data for treatments. In practice, instead, it has meant much more electronic paperwork and physicians are now complaining that they have less, rather than more time to see patients individually.
现今，效率的问题 没有那么极端，但比较长期。它们也可能延长 本来打算要解决的祸害。以电子医疗记录为例。它似乎可以解决医生 手写记录的问题， 它还有一个益处， 是能为治疗提供更好的资料。但在现实上，却意味着 电子文书工作多出很多， 现在医生都在抱怨 他们看个别病人的时间 没有变多，反而变少了。迷恋效率有可能实际上 让我们变得比较没效率。
The obsession with efficiency can actually make us less efficient. Efficiency also bites back with false positives. Hospitals have hundreds of devices registering alarms. Too often, they're crying wolf. It takes time to rule those out. And that time results in fatigue, stress and once more, the neglect of the problems of real patients. There are also false positives in pattern recognition. A school bus, viewed from the wrong angle, can resemble a punching bag. So, precious time is required to eliminate misidentification. False negatives are a problem too. Algorithms can learn a lot, fast. But they can tell us only about the past. So many future classics get bad reviews, like Moby Dick. Or, are turned down by multiple publishers, like the Harry Potter series.
效率也可能会以伪阳性 （误判为真）的形式反咬。医院有数百项会发出警报的装置。通常都是假警报。排除假警报要花时间。花那些时间会造成疲惫、压力， 并且忽视真正病人的问题。在模式辨识时也会遇到 伪阳性的状况。从错误的角度看一台校车， 可能会把它视为拳击沙袋。要消除错误辨识， 就要花宝贵的时间。伪阴性（误判为假）也是个问题。演算法能学得多且快。但它们只能告诉我们过去的状况。许多未来的经典得到的 是恶评，比如《白鲸记》， 或是被许多出版社拒绝， 比如《哈利波特》系列。
It can be wasteful to try to avoid all waste. Efficiency is also a trap when the opposition copies it. Take the late 19th Century, French 75 millimeter artillery piece. It was a masterpiece of lethal design. This piece could fire a shell every four seconds. But that wasn't so unusual. But what was really brilliant was that, because of the recoil mechanism, it could return to the exact same position without having to be re-aimed. So, the effective rate of firing was drastically increased. Now, this seemed to be a way for France to defeat Germany, the next time they fought. But, predictably, the Germans were working on something very similar. So, when the First World War broke out the result was the trench warfare that lasted longer than anybody had expected. A technology that was designed to shorten the war, prolonged it.
“试图避免所有的浪费” 可能就是一种浪费。但对立方复制效率时， 效率也是会变成陷阱。以十九世纪法国的 七十五毫米大炮为例。它是致命设计的杰作。这种大炮每四秒钟 就能发射一次炮弹。但那不算什么。真正厉害的是它的回弹机制， 它可以返回到完全相同的位置， 不用重新瞄准。因此大大增加有效发射的比率。对法国来说，这似乎是下次 和德国对战时的致胜之道。但，预料之中， 德国也在研究类似的东西。所以，当第一次世界大战爆发时， 结果是战壕交战， 持续的时间比任何人 预期的都还久。设计来缩短战争的技术的 结果却延长了战争。
The biggest cost of all may be missed opportunities. The platform economy connecting buyers and sellers can be a great investment and we have seen that in the last few weeks. Companies that are still losing hundreds of millions of dollars, may be creating billionaires with initial public offerings.
最大的损失可能是失去的机会。连结买家和卖家的平台经济 可能是很棒的投资， 在过去几周我们已经看到了这一点。目前还亏损数亿美金的公司 能透过公开上市造出亿万富翁。
But, the really difficult inventions are the physical and chemical ones. They mean bigger risks. They may be losing out because hardware is hard. It's much harder to scale up a physical or chemical invention than it is a software based invention. Think of batteries. Lithium-ion batteries in portable devices and electric cars are based on a 30-year-old principle. How many smart phone batteries, today, will last a full day on a single charge? Yes, hardware is hard. It took over 20 years for the patents on The Principle of Dry Photo Copying, by Chester Carlson in 1938, to result in the Xerox 914 copier introduced in 1959. The small, brave company, Haloid in Rochester, NY had to go through what most corporations would never have tolerated. There was one failure after another and one of the special problems was fire. In fact, when the 914 was finally released, it still had a device that it was called a scorch eliminator but actually it was a small fire extinguisher built in.
但真正困难的发明， 是物理和化学的发明。这些发明代表更高的风险。它们可能会因为 硬体的难度而失去机会。扩大物理或化学发明规模的难度 要比软体发明的难多了。想想电池。可携式装置和电动汽车用的锂电池 基于三十年前的原理。现今有多少手机电池 充一次电就能用一整天？没错，硬体很难做。切斯特·卡尔森在 1938 年提出的 静电复印原理的专利 就花了超过二十年才被应用， 全录到 1959 年 才推出 Xerox 914 型影印机。（全录的前身）Haloid 是位在 纽约州罗彻斯特的勇悍小公司， 大部分企业不会容许它的历程。一次又一次失败， 其中一个特殊的问题是火。事实上，当 914 终于推出时 还配备了叫做焦痕清除器的装置， 事实上是个内建的小型灭火器。
My answer to all these questions is inspired inefficiency. Data and measurement are essential, but they're not enough. Let's leave room for human intuition and human skills. There are seven facets of inspired inefficiency. First, take the scenic route, say yes to serendipity. Wrong turns can be productive. Once, when I was exploring the east bank of the Mississippi, I took the wrong turn. I was approaching a toll bridge crossing the Great River and the toll collector said I could not turn back. So, I paid my 50 cents, that's all it was at the time, and I was in Muscatine, Iowa. I had barely heard of Muscatine, but it proved to be a fascinating place. Muscatine had some of the worlds richest mussel beds. A century ago, a third of the worlds buttons were produced in Muscatine, 1.5 billion a year. The last plants have closed now, but there is still a museum of the pearl button industry that's one of the most unusual in the world. But buttons were only the beginning. This is the house in Muscatine, where China's future President stayed in 1986, as a member of an agricultural delegation. It is now the Sino-U.S. Friendship House and it's a pilgrimage site for Chinese tourists. How could I have foreseen that?
我对所有这些问题的答案是：受启发的无效率。资料和测量是很重要， 但光有它们还不够。留些空间给人类直觉和人类技能。受启发的无效率有七个面向。第一，走缓慢的长路，接纳机缘巧合。转错弯也可能会有丰富的产出。有次我在探勘密西西比东岸时 转错了弯。当时我驶近一座 横越这条大河的收费桥， 收费员说我不能回头。所以我付了五十分钱—— 那是当时的价格—— 我到了爱荷华州的马斯卡廷。我几乎没听过马斯卡廷， 结果它却是个很迷人的地方。马斯卡廷有一些世界上 最丰富的河蚌繁殖地。一世纪前，全世界三分之一的钮扣 是在马斯卡廷生产的， 一年十五亿美金。现在仅存的工厂也已关闭， 但当地仍然有一座 珍珠钮扣产业博物馆， 是世界上最奇异的现象之一。但钮扣才是开端。在马斯卡廷有一间房子， 1986 年，中国的未来国家主席 以农业代表团成员的 身分住在那里。这间房子现在是中美友谊屋， 也是中国游客的朝圣地。我怎么可能预见这些？
(Laughter)
（笑声）
Second, get up from the couch. Sometimes it can be more efficient to do things the hard way. Consider the internet of things. It's wonderful to be able to control lights, set the thermostat, even vacuum the room without leaving ones seat. But, medical research has shown that actually fidgeting, getting up, and walking around is one of the best things you can do for your heart. It's good for the heart and the waistline.
第二，从沙发上站起来。有时，用困难的方式做事 反而是更有效率的。想想物联网。可以控制灯光的确很好， 设定自动调温器， 甚至用吸尘器清理房间， 都可以坐着完成。但医学研究显示 瞎忙、站起来、走一走 事实上对心脏有益， 对心脏和腰围都好。
Third, monetize your mistakes. Great forms can be created by imaginative development of accidents. Tad Leski, an architect of the Metropolitan Opera at Lincoln Center, was working on a sketch and some white ink fell on the drawing. Other people might just have thrown it away, but Leski was inspired to produce a starburst chandelier that was probably the most notable of its kind of the 20th century.
第三，从你的错误中找到好处。富有想像力的事故 可以发展造出很棒的做法。泰德·莱斯基是林肯中心 大都会歌剧院的建筑师， 他在画草图时，一些 白色墨水洒到他的图上。其他人可能就只会把图丢了， 但莱斯基得到灵感，制造出了 一盏光芒四射的枝形吊灯， 可能是整个二十世纪 这类吊灯中最著名的一盏。
Fourth, sometimes try the hard way. It can be more efficient to be less fluent. Psychologists call this desirable difficulty. Taking detailed notes with a keyboard would seem to be the best way to grasp what lecturer is saying, to be able to review it verbatim. However, studies have shown that when we have to abbreviate, when we have to summarize what a speaker is saying, when we're taking notes with a pen or a pencil on paper, we're processing that information. We're making that our own and we're learning much more actively than when we were just transcribing what was being said.
第四，有时试试困难的方式。不要那么流畅可能会更有效率。心理学家称之为有益的困难。用键盘来做细节笔记， 似乎是理解讲师 讲述之内容的最佳方式， 可以再逐字回顾。然而，研究显示 当我们必须要简短省写时， 当我们必须要把讲师的话做整理时， 当我们用笔在纸上记笔记时， 我们是在处理那些资讯。我们在把资讯变成自己的， 我们的学习会更主动许多， 远胜于只是把听到的话抄写下来。
Fifth, get security through diversity. Monoculture can be deadly, remember the potato? It was efficient until it wasn't. Diversity applies to organizations too. Software can tell what has made people in an organization succeed in the past. And it's useful, sometimes, in screening employees. But, remember the environment is constantly changing and software, screening software, has no way to tell, and we have no way to tell who is going to be useful in the future. So, we need to supplement whatever the algorithm tells us by an intuition and by looking for people with various backgrounds and various outlooks.
第五，透过多样性获取担保。单一栽培可能会致命。记得马铃薯吗？它一直很效率，直到不再如此。多样性也适用于组织。软体可以判断出是什么因素 让组织中的人过去很成功。这些资讯有时对筛选员工很有用。但要记住环境时时刻刻在变， 而软体，筛选软体无法判断， 我们也无法判断 谁在未来有用。我们得要补足演算法 告诉我们的资讯， 做法是用直觉以及寻找 不同背景和不同前景的人。
Sixth, achieve safety through redundancy and human skills. Why did two 737 Max aircraft crash? We still don't know the full story but we know how to prevent future tragedies. We need multiple independent systems. If one fails then the others can override it. We also need skilled operators to come to the rescue, and that means constant training.
第六，以备用品和人类技艺来担保。为什么两架波音 737 Max 会坠毁？我们仍然不知道全部的详情， 但我们知道如何预防未来悲剧。我们需要不只一个独立的系统。如果一个系统失灵， 其他的系统能够取代它。我们也需要熟练的操作员来救援， 那就表示需要经常性的训练。
Seven, be rationally extravagant. Thomas Edison was a pioneer of the film industry, as well as of camera technology. Nobody has done more for efficiency than Thomas Edison. But his cross cutting broke down. His manager hired a so-called efficiency engineer, who advised him to save money by using more of the film stock that he'd shot, having fewer retakes. Well, Edison was a genius but he didn't understand the new rules of feature films and the fact that failure was becoming the price of success. On the other hand, some great directors, like Erich von Stroheim, were the opposite. They were superb dramatists, and Stroheim was also a memorable actor. But they couldn't live within their budgets. So that was not sustainable. It was Irving Thalberg, a former secretary with intuitive genius, who achieved rational extravagance. First at Universal, then at MGM, becoming the ideal of the Hollywood producer.
第七，做理智的挥霍。汤玛斯·爱迪生是电影业的先锋， 也是照相技术的先锋。没人比爱迪生更有效率， 但他的成本削减失败了。他的经纪人雇用所谓的效率工程师， 他建议爱迪生 多利用已经拍摄的电影胶片， 少重拍，以节省费用。爱迪生是天才， 但他不了解电影长片的新规则 和失败成了（省钱）成功的代价。另一方面，一些伟大的导演， 如艾瑞克·冯史卓汉，则恰恰相反。他们是一流的剧作家， 史卓汉还是个让人难忘的演员。但他们无法控制在预算之内。那不是永续的做法。是欧文·托尔伯格这位 有直觉的天才前任秘书 达到了理智的挥霍。一开始是在环球，接着是在米高梅， 成为理想的好莱坞制片。
Summing up, to be truly efficient, we need optimal inefficiency. The shortest path may be a curve rather than a straight line. Charles Darwin understood that. When he encountered a tough problem, he made a circuit of a trail, the sand-walk that he'd built behind his house. A productive path can be physical, like Darwin's, or a virtual one, or an unforeseen detour from a path we had laid out. Too much efficiency can weaken itself. But a bit of inspired efficiency can strengthen it. Sometimes, the best way to move forward is to follow a circle.
总结一下，要能真正有效率， 我们需要把无效率做最佳化。最短的路径可能是曲线 而不是直线。查尔斯·达尔文了解这一点。当他遇到困难的问题时， 他用小径做成一个回路， 在他家后面建造了一条沙道。有生产力的路径可以是实体的， 就像达尔文的一样， 或是虚拟的， 或是我们原订路线所未预料的绕路。太有效率可能会削弱效率。但一点点受启发的 无效率可以强化效率。有时，向前的最佳路径， 是顺着一个圆。
Thank you.
谢谢。
(Applause)
（掌声） |
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